Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 77

Green Bay Packers 0 – Detroit Lions 7

(15:00) 8-J.Vogel punts 48 yards to DET 29, Center-54-D.Hart. 39-J.Agnew to DET 29 for no gain (11-T.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP

51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.36 EP
49% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 77, worth -4.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model