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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 18 at the 50

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New Orleans Saints 9

What Actually Happened

(14:20) 9-B.Anger punts 38 yards to NO 12, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.50 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 50, worth -3.03 EP
KICK -1.61 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model