4TH&DATA
EN ES
Home
TB Away

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2-6 HC Dirk Koetter
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

6-2 HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2017-11-05 · 13:00 ET Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.0 O/U 54.0

Win Probability

TB
33.2%
NO
66.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: +0.106 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Drew Brees (NO): +0.137 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NO defense: -0.013 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • TB offense: -0.024 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

TB 22 15–29
–
NO 26 19–33
Projected margin: NO by 4 Projected total: 48

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 9

TB

Brent Grimes CB Out Shoulder
Chris Baker DT Questionable Ankle
Adam Humphries WR Questionable Rib
Jameis Winston QB Questionable right Shoulder
Robert Ayers DE Questionable Ankle
Kendell Beckwith LB Questionable Knee

NO

Larry Warford G Out Abdomen

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 10
–
NO 30

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:54 FG NO (8:54) 3-W.Lutz 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. TB 0 – NO 3
  • Q1 06:37 TD NO (6:37) 9-B.Anger punt is BLOCKED by 34-J.Hardee, Center-65-G.Sanborn, RECOVERED by NO-34-J.Hardee at TB 7. 34-J.Hardee for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 0 – NO 9
  • Q2 03:03 FG TB (3:03) 7-P.Murray 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. TB 3 – NO 9
  • Q2 01:06 TD NO (1:06) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 41-A.Kamara for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass -5, YAC 38 TB 3 – NO 15
  • Q3 10:03 TD NO (10:03) 41-A.Kamara left guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 3 – NO 22
  • Q3 09:46 TD NO (9:46) 9-D.Brees pass deep middle to 19-T.Ginn for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 36, YAC 0 TB 3 – NO 29
  • Q4 06:54 TD TB (6:54) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 88-L.Stocker for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 2, YAC 6 TB 9 – NO 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 4 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 90%

    (8:54) 3-W.Lutz 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 TB 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (6:37) 9-B.Anger punt is BLOCKED by 34-J.Hardee, Center-65-G.Sanborn, RECOVERED by NO-34-J.Hardee at TB 7. 34-J.Hardee for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 TB 4th & 4 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 48%

    (2:43) 9-B.Anger punts 32 yards to NO 11, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NO 4th & 8 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:49) 6-T.Morstead punts 40 yards to TB 47, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 18-B.Reedy.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TB 4th & 18 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 31%

    (14:20) 9-B.Anger punts 38 yards to NO 12, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TB 4th & 4 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 74%

    (3:03) 7-P.Murray 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TB 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (:36) 9-B.Anger punts 47 yards to NO 25, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TB 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (13:39) 9-B.Anger punts 43 yards to NO 28, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 19-T.Ginn MUFFS catch, and recovers at NO 28. 19-T.Ginn to NO 28 for no gain (59-D.Bond).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TB 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (8:28) 9-B.Anger punts 48 yards to NO 37, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 19-T.Ginn pushed ob at NO 32 for -5 yards (37-K.Tandy).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NO 4th & 2 at the 25
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 85%

    (4:01) 3-W.Lutz 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TB 4th & 20 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 65%

    (14:52) 7-P.Murray 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NO 4th & 13 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (12:34) 6-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to TB 8, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TB 4th & 10 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 31%

    (8:23) 9-B.Anger punts 31 yards to NO 19, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 83-W.Snead MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by TB-12-C.Godwin at NO 19. 12-C.Godwin to NO 19 for no gain (83-W.Snead).

    See the full breakdown →