Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 13 at the 59

New Orleans Saints 30 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

(12:34) 6-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to TB 8, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.71 EP
69% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model