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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 21

New Orleans Saints 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:54) 3-W.Lutz 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +5.13 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model