4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 50

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – New Orleans Saints 30

What Actually Happened

(8:23) 9-B.Anger punts 31 yards to NO 19, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 83-W.Snead MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by TB-12-C.Godwin at NO 19. 12-C.Godwin to NO 19 for no gain (83-W.Snead).

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.15 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 50, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -1.07 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model