Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 69

Cleveland Browns 10 – Detroit Lions 10

(8:52) 4-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to DET 20, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 39-J.Agnew pushed ob at DET 30 for 10 yards (41-M.Jordan).

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.60 EP
55% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 69, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model