4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
CLE Away

Cleveland Browns

HC Hue Jackson
@
DET Home

Detroit Lions

HC Jim Caldwell
Sunday 2017-11-12 · 13:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread 10.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

CLE
29.7%
DET
70.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.183 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to DET: Matthew Stafford (DET) -0.007 vs DeShone Kizer (CLE) -0.273 EPA/dropback
  • DET offense: -0.083 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • CLE on 8 more days rest than DET
  • DET defense: -0.085 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

CLE 18
–
DET 25
Projected margin: DET by 7 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

CLE

Larry Ogunjobi DT Questionable Groin

DET

T.J. Lang G Out Concussion
Jalen Reeves-Maybin LB Out Ankle
Ezekiel Ansah DE Doubtful Back
Don Carey S Questionable Knee
Kenny Golladay WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 24
–
DET 38

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:34 FG CLE (11:34) 5-Z.Gonzalez 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. CLE 3 – DET 0
  • Q1 08:46 TD CLE (8:46) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer pass short left to 18-K.Britt for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN [59-T.Whitehead]. PENALTY on DET-59-T.Whitehead, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced between downs. CLE 9 – DET 0
  • Q1 06:03 FG DET (6:03) 5-M.Prater 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. CLE 10 – DET 3
  • Q2 10:30 TD DET (10:30) 21-A.Abdullah up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 10 – DET 9
  • Q2 04:08 TD DET (4:08) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer pass short right to 87-S.DeValve to CLE 43 for 9 yards (24-N.Lawson). FUMBLES (24-N.Lawson), RECOVERED by DET-24-N.Lawson at CLE 44. 24-N.Lawson for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 10 – DET 16
  • Q3 11:06 TD CLE (11:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 34-I.Crowell left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 16 – DET 17
  • Q3 02:28 TD CLE (2:28) 7-D.Kizer up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 23 – DET 17
  • Q3 00:56 TD DET (:56) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 25-T.Riddick for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 24 – DET 23
  • Q4 10:52 TD DET (10:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 85-E.Ebron for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 24 – DET 30
  • Q4 04:36 TD DET (4:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 15-G.Tate for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 24 – DET 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%

    (11:34) 5-Z.Gonzalez 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 14 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 81%

    (6:03) 5-M.Prater 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66%

    (3:49) (Shotgun) 29-D.Johnson up the middle to CLE 45 for 1 yard (69-A.Zettel). Detroit challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. (Timeout #1.)

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 12 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 40%

    (15:00) 4-B.Colquitt punts 36 yards to DET 10, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (8:52) 4-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to DET 20, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 39-J.Agnew pushed ob at DET 30 for 10 yards (41-M.Jordan).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 15 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (6:13) 6-S.Martin punts 43 yards to CLE 32, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers. PENALTY on CLE-20-B.Boddy-Calhoun, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 32.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 6 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 36%

    (8:34) 6-S.Martin punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Touchback.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (15:00) 4-B.Colquitt punts 45 yards to DET 33, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 39-J.Agnew to DET 39 for 6 yards (36-D.Smith).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 17 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (9:16) 4-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to DET 36, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 39-J.Agnew to CLE 15 for 49 yards (50-B.Bello). PENALTY on DET-24-N.Lawson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DET 47.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 4 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 46%

    (7:10) 6-S.Martin punts 39 yards to CLE 18, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 18 for no gain (45-Ch.Washington).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 14 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (5:32) 4-B.Colquitt punts 59 yards to DET 27, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 39-J.Agnew to CLE 44 for 29 yards (49-J.Keyes).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 6 at the 71 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 38%

    (3:36) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer pass short middle to 87-S.DeValve to CLE 38 for 9 yards (35-M.Killebrew) [97-A.Spence].

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 5 at the 45 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 43%

    (2:10) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer pass short left to 18-K.Britt to DET 26 for 19 yards (32-T.Wilson).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 10 at the 26 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.24 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 84%

    (1:39) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer pass short right to 87-S.DeValve to DET 9 for 17 yards (40-J.Davis; 32-T.Wilson) [97-A.Spence].