Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 17 at the 88

Cleveland Browns 24 – Detroit Lions 31

What Actually Happened

(9:16) 4-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to DET 36, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 39-J.Agnew to CLE 15 for 49 yards (50-B.Bello). PENALTY on DET-24-N.Lawson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DET 47.

The Three Options

GO -3.43 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.29 EP
75% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 88, worth -5.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model