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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 57

Detroit Lions 31 – Cleveland Browns 24

What Actually Happened

(7:10) 6-S.Martin punts 39 yards to CLE 18, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 18 for no gain (45-Ch.Washington).

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.32 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 57, worth -2.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 17, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP