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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 26

Cleveland Browns 24 – Detroit Lions 38

What Actually Happened

(1:39) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer pass short right to 87-S.DeValve to DET 9 for 17 yards (40-J.Davis; 32-T.Wilson) [97-A.Spence].

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +3.95 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26, worth -0.86 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 36, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.24 EP