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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 14 at the 28

Detroit Lions 0 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(6:03) 5-M.Prater 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.26 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 28, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 38, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model