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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 14 at the 47

Green Bay Packers 13 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(4:09) (Punt formation) 8-J.Vogel punts 31 yards to CHI 16, Center-54-D.Hart, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.50 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 47, worth -2.81 EP
KICK -1.44 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.93 EP
PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 13, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model