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Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
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CHI Home

Chicago Bears

HC John Fox
Sunday 2017-11-12 · 13:00 Soldier Field, Chicago US 🌧 Rain Spread 4.5 O/U 37.5

Win Probability

GB
51.8%
CHI
48.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CHI offense: -0.180 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • CHI on 8 more days rest than GB
  • QB edge to GB: Mitch Trubisky (CHI) -0.345 vs Brett Hundley (GB) -0.273 EPA/dropback
  • CHI defense: -0.061 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • GB offense: +0.027 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

GB 21
–
CHI 19
Projected margin: GB by 2 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

GB

Bryan Bulaga T Out Knee
Morgan Burnett S Out Groin
Quinton Dial DT Out Chest
Martellus Bennett TE Questionable Shoulder
Ahmad Brooks LB Questionable Back
Justin McCray G Questionable Ankle
Joe Thomas LB Questionable Ankle

CHI

Bryce Callahan CB Questionable Knee
Tom Compton T Questionable Ankle
Sherrick McManis CB Questionable Hamstring
Roy Robertson-Harris DE Questionable Hamstring
Dion Sims TE Questionable Illness
Danny Trevathan LB Questionable Calf
Kyle Long G Questionable Finger

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 23
–
CHI 16

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:25 FG GB (7:25) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-D.Hart, Holder-8-J.Vogel. GB 3 – CHI 0
  • Q1 02:21 FG CHI (2:21) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. GB 3 – CHI 3
  • Q2 11:49 TD GB (11:49) (Shotgun) 88-T.Montgomery left tackle for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 9 – CHI 3
  • Q2 00:01 FG CHI (:01) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. PENALTY on CHI-79-B.Sowell, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. GB 10 – CHI 6
  • Q3 10:20 FG GB (10:20) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-D.Hart, Holder-8-J.Vogel. GB 13 – CHI 6
  • Q4 13:14 FG GB (13:14) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-D.Hart, Holder-8-J.Vogel. GB 16 – CHI 6
  • Q4 10:48 TD CHI (10:48) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep left to 15-J.Bellamy for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 16 – CHI 12
  • Q4 05:37 TD GB (5:37) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hundley pass deep right to 17-D.Adams for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 22 – CHI 13
  • Q4 03:23 FG CHI (3:23) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. GB 23 – CHI 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 6 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:09) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 59 yards to GB -1, Center-49-A.DePaola. 11-T.Davis to GB 8 for 9 yards (36-D.Houston-Carson).

  • Q1 GB 4th & 2 at the 22
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 88%

    (7:25) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-D.Hart, Holder-8-J.Vogel.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 4 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 81%

    (2:21) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (:05) (Punt formation) 8-J.Vogel punts 39 yards to CHI 32, Center-54-D.Hart, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 12 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (13:38) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 54 yards to GB 16, Center-49-A.DePaola. 11-T.Davis pushed ob at CHI 40 for 44 yards (16-P.O'Donnell). PENALTY on GB-48-J.Thomas, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at GB 31.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 12 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (5:16) (Punt formation) 8-J.Vogel punts 37 yards to CHI 34, Center-54-D.Hart, downed by GB-54-D.Hart.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 18 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (3:27) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to GB 28, Center-49-A.DePaola. 11-T.Davis to GB 34 for 6 yards (36-D.Houston-Carson). PENALTY on GB-41-L.Pipkins, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at GB 34.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 14 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:49) (Punt formation) 8-J.Vogel punts 53 yards to CHI 27, Center-54-D.Hart. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 35 for 8 yards (47-J.Ryan).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 6 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 82%

    (:01) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. PENALTY on CHI-79-B.Sowell, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 1 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.87 EP
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (10:20) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-D.Hart, Holder-8-J.Vogel.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 12 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (8:20) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to GB 31, Center-49-A.DePaola. 11-T.Davis pushed ob at GB 43 for 12 yards (84-B.Braunecker).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 14 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 33%

    (4:09) (Punt formation) 8-J.Vogel punts 31 yards to CHI 16, Center-54-D.Hart, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 8 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:40) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to GB 42, Center-49-A.DePaola, downed by CHI-36-D.Houston-Carson.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 1 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 28%

    (:55) 30-J.Williams right guard to CHI 45 for 4 yards (52-C.Jones).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 7 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 71%

    (13:14) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-D.Hart, Holder-8-J.Vogel.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 6 at the 31 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 73%

    (3:23) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 4 at the 17 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 92%

    (1:07) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 35 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-54-D.Hart, Holder-8-J.Vogel.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 10 at the 64 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 31%

    (:42) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right to 30-B.Cunningham to CHI 41 for 5 yards. Lateral to 55-H.Grasu to CHI 43 for 2 yards (76-M.Daniels).