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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 49

Green Bay Packers 13 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(:55) 30-J.Williams right guard to CHI 45 for 4 yards (52-C.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.28 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -3.56 EP
KICK -2.31 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +0.96 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -3.61 EP
PUNT -1.37 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 14, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model