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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 17

Green Bay Packers 23 – Chicago Bears 16

What Actually Happened

(1:07) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 35 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-54-D.Hart, Holder-8-J.Vogel.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +2.98 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 17, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +2.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.54 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 27, worth -0.49 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model