Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 64

Chicago Bears 16 – Green Bay Packers 23

(:42) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right to 30-B.Cunningham to CHI 41 for 5 yards. Lateral to 55-H.Grasu to CHI 43 for 2 yards (76-M.Daniels).

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP

What Happened

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +0.61 EP
69% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 64, worth -1.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.46 EP