4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 71

Green Bay Packers 3 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(:05) (Punt formation) 8-J.Vogel punts 39 yards to CHI 32, Center-54-D.Hart, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.69 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 71, worth -4.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.77 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 29, worth -1.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP