Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 12 at the 70

Chicago Bears 3 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(13:38) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 54 yards to GB 16, Center-49-A.DePaola. 11-T.Davis pushed ob at CHI 40 for 44 yards (16-P.O'Donnell). PENALTY on GB-48-J.Thomas, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at GB 31.

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.57 EP
71% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model