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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 16

Houston Texans 0 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(13:25) 7-K.Fairbairn 34 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.16 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 16, worth -1.07 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model