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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2017-11-12 · 16:05 Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles US ☀️ Clear Spread 12.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

HOU
28.6%
LA
71.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Tom Savage (HOU): -0.259 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LA defense: -0.138 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • LA offense: +0.098 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • HOU defense: -0.074 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

HOU 20
–
LA 27
Projected margin: LA by 7 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

HOU

Dylan Cole LB Out Hamstring
Joel Heath DE Out Knee

LA

Malcolm Brown RB Out Knee
Derek Carrier TE Doubtful Hamstring
Robert Quinn LB Doubtful Illness

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 7
–
LA 33

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:14 FG LA (11:14) 4-G.Zuerlein 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. HOU 0 – LA 3
  • Q2 10:22 FG LA (10:22) 4-G.Zuerlein 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. HOU 0 – LA 6
  • Q2 06:37 TD HOU (6:37) (Shotgun) 3-T.Savage pass short left to 12-B.Ellington for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – LA 6
  • Q2 00:19 FG LA (:19) 4-G.Zuerlein 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. HOU 7 – LA 9
  • Q3 09:36 TD LA (9:36) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 17-R.Woods for 94 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 7 – LA 15
  • Q3 01:42 TD LA (1:42) (No Huddle) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 12-S.Watkins for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 7 – LA 22
  • Q3 01:24 TD LA (1:24) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 17-R.Woods for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 7 – LA 29
  • Q4 07:38 FG LA (7:38) 4-G.Zuerlein 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. HOU 7 – LA 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 7 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (11:14) 4-G.Zuerlein 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 11 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 31%

    (9:14) 9-S.Lechler punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 11 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (8:20) 6-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to HOU 26, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 12-B.Ellington ran ob at HOU 43 for 17 yards (6-J.Hekker).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 6 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 61%

    (5:02) 9-S.Lechler punts 34 yards to LA 4, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-50-B.Heeney.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 17 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (2:34) 6-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to HOU 37, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 6 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 94%

    (13:25) 7-K.Fairbairn 34 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 11 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 95%

    (10:22) 4-G.Zuerlein 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 7 at the 68
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 41%

    (3:39) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker pass short right to 10-P.Cooper to LA 38 for 6 yards (23-K.Drummond).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 3 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 74%

    (:19) 4-G.Zuerlein 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 12 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:18) 6-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to HOU 20, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (8:27) 9-S.Lechler punts 56 yards to LA 14, Center-46-J.Weeks. 10-P.Cooper to LA 18 for 4 yards (41-Z.Cunningham). PENALTY on LA-50-S.Ebukam, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at LA 18.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 11 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 27%

    (4:03) 6-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:04) 9-S.Lechler punts 43 yards to LA 37, Center-46-J.Weeks. 10-P.Cooper pushed ob at HOU 36 for 27 yards (52-B.Peters). HOU-46-J.Weeks was injured during the play. His return is Probable.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 6 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 29%

    (14:07) 9-S.Lechler punts 40 yards to LA 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 10-P.Cooper.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 3 at the 15
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 94%

    (7:38) 4-G.Zuerlein 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 5 at the 11 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 96%

    (4:43) (Shotgun) 3-T.Savage pass short middle intended for 10-D.Hopkins INTERCEPTED by 24-B.Countess at LA 6. 24-B.Countess to LA 25 for 19 yards (3-T.Savage).