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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 14

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(10:22) 4-G.Zuerlein 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.19 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 14, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 24, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model