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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 9

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:14) 4-G.Zuerlein 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +2.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.44 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 9, worth +0.44 EP
KICK +2.35 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.31 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model