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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 51

Houston Texans 7 – Los Angeles Rams 30

What Actually Happened

(14:07) 9-S.Lechler punts 40 yards to LA 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 10-P.Cooper.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.83 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 51, worth -2.73 EP
KICK -1.40 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model