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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 15

Los Angeles Rams 30 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(7:38) 4-G.Zuerlein 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +2.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.03 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 15, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 25, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP