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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 11

Houston Texans 7 – Los Angeles Rams 33

What Actually Happened

(4:43) (Shotgun) 3-T.Savage pass short middle intended for 10-D.Hopkins INTERCEPTED by 24-B.Countess at LA 6. 24-B.Countess to LA 25 for 19 yards (3-T.Savage).

The Three Options

GO +1.90 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.45 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 22, worth -0.62 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model