Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 11 at the 50

Houston Texans 0 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(9:14) 9-S.Lechler punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.19 EP
71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 50, worth -3.08 EP

KICK -1.61 EP

31% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
69% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model