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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 38

Houston Texans 0 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(5:02) 9-S.Lechler punts 34 yards to LA 4, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-50-B.Heeney.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.69 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 38, worth -2.32 EP
KICK -0.16 EP
  • 61% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 47, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP