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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 60

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:55) 3-B.Nortman punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-43-M.Overton, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.38 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP