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LAC Away

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Anthony Lynn
@
JAX Home

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Marrone
Sunday 2017-11-12 · 13:00 EverBank Field, Jacksonville US ☀️ Clear Spread 5.0 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

LAC
36.1%
JAX
63.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • JAX defense: -0.260 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • LAC on 7 more days rest than JAX
  • LAC offense: +0.014 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LAC 21
–
JAX 26
Projected margin: JAX by 5 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

LAC

Joe Barksdale T Questionable Foot
Hayes Pullard LB Questionable Neck

JAX

A.J. Cann G Questionable Triceps
Marqise Lee WR Questionable Knee
Patrick Omameh G Questionable Knee
Jermey Parnell T Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 17
–
JAX 20

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 00:34 TD JAX (:34) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 30-C.Grant. 30-C.Grant up the middle for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Fake Punt LAC 0 – JAX 6
  • Q2 00:56 TD LAC (:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 30-A.Ekeler for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – JAX 6
  • Q3 10:37 TD LAC (10:37) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 30-A.Ekeler for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on JAX-50-T.Smith, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. LAC 13 – JAX 6
  • Q3 02:10 TD JAX (2:10) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 11-M.Lee for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 14 – JAX 12
  • Q4 10:38 FG LAC (10:38) (Field Goal formation) 9-N.Novak 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens. LAC 17 – JAX 14
  • Q4 00:07 FG JAX (:07) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Lambo 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Shatley, Holder-3-B.Nortman. LAC 17 – JAX 17
  • Q5 03:17 FG JAX (3:17) 4-J.Lambo 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Shatley, Holder-3-B.Nortman. LAC 17 – JAX 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 2 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (11:38) (Punt formation) 8-D.Kaser punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-47-M.Windt, Touchback.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 2 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 52%

    (9:16) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 33 yards to LAC 7, Center-43-M.Overton, downed by JAX-17-A.Benn.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 2 at the 85
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (7:43) (Punt formation) 8-D.Kaser punts 61 yards to JAX 24, Center-47-M.Windt. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 38 for 14 yards (25-R.Jenkins).

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 1 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.45 EP
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 21%

    (5:47) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 43 yards to LAC 10, Center-43-M.Overton, downed by JAX-55-L.McCray.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 1 at the 81
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (4:31) 8-D.Kaser punts 61 yards to JAX 20, Center-47-M.Windt. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 29 for 9 yards (30-A.Ekeler). PENALTY on JAX-55-L.McCray, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 20.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 7 at the 56
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (:34) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 30-C.Grant. 30-C.Grant up the middle for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Fake Punt

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 10 at the 36
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 62%

    (10:24) 8-D.Kaser punts 36 yards to end zone, Center-47-M.Windt, Touchback.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 2 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (6:55) 3-B.Nortman punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-43-M.Overton, Touchback.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (6:28) 8-D.Kaser punts 52 yards to JAX 28, Center-47-M.Windt. 85-J.Mickens ran ob at JAX 28 for no gain.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 16 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (3:56) 3-B.Nortman punts 52 yards to LAC 26, Center-43-M.Overton. 12-T.Benjamin to LAC 30 for 4 yards (52-D.Payne). PENALTY on LAC-25-R.Jenkins, Unnecessary Roughness, 13 yards, enforced at LAC 26.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (14:07) 3-B.Nortman punts 55 yards to LAC 18, Center-43-M.Overton. 12-T.Benjamin to LAC 24 for 6 yards (55-L.McCray; 80-J.O'Shaughnessy).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 6 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 65%

    (8:01) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete short middle to 84-K.Cole.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 10 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (6:26) 8-D.Kaser punts 42 yards to JAX 13, Center-47-M.Windt. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 16 for 3 yards (43-M.Davis).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 2 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (15:00) (Punt formation) 8-D.Kaser punts 50 yards to JAX 14, Center-47-M.Windt. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 17 for 3 yards (49-J.Onwualu).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 6 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (14:06) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 60 yards to LAC 19, Center-43-M.Overton. 12-T.Benjamin to LAC 23 for 4 yards (25-P.Thompson).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 6 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 72%

    (10:38) (Field Goal formation) 9-N.Novak 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 10 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (9:06) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 30 yards to LAC 29, Center-40-T.Bohanon, downed by JAX-52-D.Payne. PENALTY on JAX-25-P.Thompson, Player Out of Bounds on Punt, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 29.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (7:41) (Punt formation) 8-D.Kaser punts 36 yards to JAX 21, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 6 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (6:09) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-40-T.Bohanon, Touchback.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 9 at the 69 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (2:51) (Punt formation) 8-D.Kaser punts 44 yards to JAX 25, Center-47-M.Windt. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 29 for 4 yards (30-A.Ekeler).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 4 at the 84 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (1:08) (Punt formation) 8-D.Kaser punts 42 yards to JAX 42, Center-47-M.Windt. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 48 for 6 yards (30-A.Ekeler).