Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 16 at the 78

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:56) 3-B.Nortman punts 52 yards to LAC 26, Center-43-M.Overton. 12-T.Benjamin to LAC 30 for 4 yards (52-D.Payne). PENALTY on LAC-25-R.Jenkins, Unnecessary Roughness, 13 yards, enforced at LAC 26.

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.99 EP
72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model