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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 61

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(11:38) (Punt formation) 8-D.Kaser punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-47-M.Windt, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.74 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 61, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.09 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 20, worth -1.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP