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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Jacksonville Jaguars
4th & 6 at the 35
Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 14
What Actually Happened
(8:01) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete short middle to 84-K.Cole.
The Three Options
GO
+0.65 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.16 EP
- 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.51 EP
KICK
+0.64 EP
- 65% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
- 35% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT
+0.11 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
