Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 55

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 6

(6:26) 8-D.Kaser punts 42 yards to JAX 13, Center-47-M.Windt. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 16 for 3 yards (43-M.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.88 EP
70% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 55, worth -3.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model