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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 64

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Punt formation) 8-D.Kaser punts 50 yards to JAX 14, Center-47-M.Windt. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 17 for 3 yards (49-J.Onwualu).

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.85 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 64, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 22, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP