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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 32

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(10:38) (Field Goal formation) 9-N.Novak 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.23 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 32, worth -1.55 EP
KICK +0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 42, worth -2.18 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model