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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 57

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(7:41) (Punt formation) 8-D.Kaser punts 36 yards to JAX 21, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.15 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 57, worth -2.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 17, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP