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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 69

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(2:51) (Punt formation) 8-D.Kaser punts 44 yards to JAX 25, Center-47-M.Windt. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 29 for 4 yards (30-A.Ekeler).

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.42 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 69, worth -2.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 27, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model