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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 84

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(1:08) (Punt formation) 8-D.Kaser punts 42 yards to JAX 42, Center-47-M.Windt. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 48 for 6 yards (30-A.Ekeler).

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.44 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 84, worth -3.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 42, worth -1.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model