4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 53

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:47) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 43 yards to LAC 10, Center-43-M.Overton, downed by JAX-55-L.McCray.

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.92 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 53, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -1.37 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.45 EP