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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 81

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(4:31) 8-D.Kaser punts 61 yards to JAX 20, Center-47-M.Windt. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 29 for 9 yards (30-A.Ekeler). PENALTY on JAX-55-L.McCray, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.47 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 81, worth -4.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.35 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 38, worth -2.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP