Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 56

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

(:34) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 30-C.Grant. 30-C.Grant up the middle for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Fake Punt

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP

What Happened

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.99 EP
62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 56, worth -2.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model