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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 5

Washington Commanders 10 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(6:25) 32-S.Perine right end to MIN 1 for 4 yards (22-H.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +3.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.90 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 5, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model