MIN @ WAS — 4th & Data

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Washington Commanders

4-5 HC Jay Gruden

Sunday 2017-11-12 · 13:00 ET FedExField, Landover US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

MIN

46.4%

WAS

53.6%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

MIN defense: -0.100 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
MIN on 7 more days rest than WAS
MIN offense: -0.019 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
Kirk Cousins (WAS): +0.077 EPA/dropback in prior starts

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

MIN 21 14–28

–

WAS 23 16–30

Projected margin: WAS by 2 Projected total: 44

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 10

MIN

Mike Remmers T Out Concussion

Jeremiah Sirles G Out Knee

Anthony Harris S Questionable Hamstring

Stephen Weatherly DE Questionable Knee

Everson Griffen DE Questionable Foot

WAS

Matt Ioannidis DE Out Hand

Arthur Jones DT Out Shoulder

Niles Paul TE Questionable Concussion

Jordan Reed TE Questionable Hamstring

Zach Brown LB Questionable Ankle

Jamison Crowder WR Questionable Hamstring

Shawn Lauvao G Questionable Stinger

Spencer Long C Questionable Knee

Morgan Moses T Questionable Ankle

Montae Nicholson S Questionable Shoulder

Ty Nsekhe T Questionable Core Muscle

Brian Quick WR Questionable Concussion

Brandon Scherff G Questionable Knee

Trent Williams T Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 38

–

WAS 30

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 24 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 11:03 TD WAS (11:03) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 13-M.Harris. Washington challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 13-M.Harris for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 0 – WAS 6
Q1 08:21 TD MIN (8:21) 25-L.Murray up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – WAS 7
Q1 00:11 FG WAS (:11) 6-N.Rose 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. MIN 7 – WAS 10
Q2 11:49 TD MIN (11:49) (Shotgun) 7-C.Keenum pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIN-14-S.Diggs, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. MIN 13 – WAS 10
Q2 04:50 TD WAS (4:50) 8-K.Cousins left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. QB sneak MIN 14 – WAS 16
Q2 01:55 TD MIN (1:55) (Shotgun) 7-C.Keenum pass short right to 19-A.Thielen for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 20 – WAS 17
Q2 00:25 TD MIN (:25) 7-C.Keenum pass short middle to 89-D.Morgan for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 27 – WAS 17
Q3 12:27 TD MIN (12:27) (Shotgun) 7-C.Keenum pass short right to 17-J.Wright for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 34 – WAS 17
Q3 08:28 FG WAS (8:28) 6-N.Rose 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. MIN 35 – WAS 20
Q4 14:50 TD WAS (14:50) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins left end to MIN 1 for 1 yard (99-D.Hunter). FUMBLES (99-D.Hunter), RECOVERED by MIN-34-A.Sendejo at MIN 0. 34-A.Sendejo for 100 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 35 – WAS 26
Q4 07:50 FG MIN (7:50) 2-K.Forbath 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley. MIN 38 – WAS 27
Q4 01:20 FG WAS (1:20) 6-N.Rose 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. MIN 38 – WAS 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 WAS 4th & 1 at the 61

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP

p(convert) 69%

(6:14) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to MIN 9, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIN 18 for 9 yards (57-N.Sundberg).
See the full breakdown →
Q1 MIN 4th & 7 at the 79

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(4:50) 4-R.Quigley punts 41 yards to WAS 38, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 WAS 4th & 2 at the 35

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 55% p(FG) 65%

(1:14) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 25-C.Thompson ran ob at MIN 8 for 27 yards.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 WAS 4th & 10 at the 10

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

(:11) 6-N.Rose 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 WAS 4th & 1 at the 5

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 62% p(FG) 98%

(6:25) 32-S.Perine right end to MIN 1 for 4 yards (22-H.Smith).
See the full breakdown →
Q3 WAS 4th & 3 at the 3

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP

p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

(8:28) 6-N.Rose 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 WAS 4th & 6 at the 32

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 72%

(:34) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 80-J.Crowder (96-B.Robison).
See the full breakdown →
Q4 MIN 4th & 11 at the 35

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 65%

(7:50) 2-K.Forbath 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 33 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 66% p(FG) 70%

(4:48) 25-C.Thompson right end to MIN 37 for -4 yards (92-T.Johnson).
See the full breakdown →
Q4 MIN 4th & 7 at the 60 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(3:50) 4-R.Quigley punts 38 yards to WAS 22, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 WAS 4th & 10 at the 65 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(2:48) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 85-V.Davis to 50 for 15 yards (24-T.Brock).
See the full breakdown →

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