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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 3

Washington Commanders 17 – Minnesota Vikings 35

What Actually Happened

(8:28) 6-N.Rose 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.97 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 3, worth +0.28 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP