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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 11 at the 35

Minnesota Vikings 35 – Washington Commanders 27

What Actually Happened

(7:50) 2-K.Forbath 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.39 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 35, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 45, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model