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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 33

Washington Commanders 27 – Minnesota Vikings 38

What Actually Happened

(4:48) 25-C.Thompson right end to MIN 37 for -4 yards (92-T.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.52 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 33, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +0.81 EP
  • 70% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 43, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model