Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 60

Minnesota Vikings 38 – Washington Commanders 27

(3:50) 4-R.Quigley punts 38 yards to WAS 22, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.15 EP
62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 60, worth -2.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model