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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 65

Washington Commanders 27 – Minnesota Vikings 38

What Actually Happened

(2:48) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 85-V.Davis to 50 for 15 yards (24-T.Brock).

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.13 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 65, worth -1.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 23, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model