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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 79

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(4:50) 4-R.Quigley punts 41 yards to WAS 38, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.71 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 79, worth -4.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 36, worth -2.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model